Category 5 Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica with unprecedented force
When Hurricane Melissa slammed into Jamaica on Tuesday night, October 28, 2025, it didn’t just bring wind and rain—it brought the kind of destruction that reshapes a nation. With sustained winds of exactly 175 miles per hour, the storm became the first Category 5 hurricane to make direct landfall on the island since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. The National Hurricane Center broke its usual silence, warning of total structural failure—a phrase rarely used, and never without cause. This wasn’t just another storm. It was a reckoning.
Why This Storm Is Different
Most hurricanes fade into headlines after a few days. But Melissa? It didn’t just intensify—it exploded. Formed as a tropical depression on October 21, 2025, in the eastern Caribbean, it gained strength faster than any storm in recent memory. By Monday, October 27, Matthew Cappucci, a senior meteorologist at my radar, flew into its eye aboard a U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane. What he saw shook even seasoned storm chasers. "They tend to be pretty taciturn," Cappucci told anchor Geoff during a live broadcast at 8:00 PM EDT. "When they break out phrasing like ‘total structural failure,’ you know it’s the real deal." That language isn’t hyperbole. It’s a technical signal. The National Hurricane Center reserves such terms for systems where reinforced concrete buildings may collapse, power grids are obliterated, and water systems become unusable for months. Melissa’s central pressure dropped to 915 millibars—among the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic this late in the season. The storm’s eye was compact, violent, and locked onto Jamaica’s south coast.
The Human Toll and Emergency Response
By the time Melissa reached Jamaica’s shores, it had already claimed four lives: three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rains flooded rivers, washed out roads, and left entire villages cut off. In Jamaica, authorities didn’t wait. They ordered mandatory evacuations across all 14 parishes. Police and military personnel went door-to-door in coastal towns like Port Antonio and Montego Bay, urging residents to leave. By Tuesday evening, over 800 emergency shelters—schools, churches, community halls—were open, ready to hold up to 500,000 people. Officials expected only 200,000 to show, based on past behavior. But this wasn’t past behavior. This was survival.
Two major airports—Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston and Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay—shut down. Five thousand daily travelers were stranded. Three hundred weekly flights vanished. Power grids buckled under the first gusts. Water treatment plants lost electricity. The storm’s tropical-storm-force winds stretched 125 miles from the center, meaning even areas not directly hit were plunged into darkness and chaos.
What Meteorologists Are Saying
Cappucci’s firsthand account carried weight. He described the eye of Melissa as unnervingly clear—"like flying through a vacuum," he said. Inside, the air was eerily still, but the walls of wind surrounding it were like a freight train made of glass. "You could feel the pressure drop in your ears," he recalled. "And the rain? It wasn’t falling—it was being thrown sideways." His observation about the National Hurricane Center’s language shift is critical. In the past 30 years, the agency has used "total structural failure" in fewer than five advisories. The last time was during Hurricane Andrew in 1992. That storm destroyed 25,000 homes in Florida. Melissa is bigger. Stronger. And it’s hitting a country with less infrastructure resilience than the U.S. coastal cities.
The Road Ahead: Cuba, the Gulf, and Beyond
After landfall, Melissa was forecast to weaken slightly—down to Category 3 with 125 mph winds—as it brushed eastern Cuba on Wednesday, October 29. But even weakened, it remains a monster. Cuban officials hadn’t issued evacuation orders by Tuesday night, but they were monitoring the situation closely. The real concern? What comes after.
The National Hurricane Center’s five-day model shows a 40% chance Melissa could re-intensify over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico after passing Cuba. If it does, it could threaten the Yucatán Peninsula between October 31 and November 2. That’s not a certainty. Long-range forecasts are notoriously unreliable beyond 72 hours. But the fact that it’s even on the table tells you how dangerous this system is.
A Nation Waiting
Geoff’s closing line on the broadcast—"Lots of folks hoping for a miracle tonight in Jamaica"—wasn’t just poetic. It was honest. For many, it was a prayer. Jamaica hasn’t faced a storm like this in 37 years. The memories of Gilbert still linger: 45 dead, $1.9 billion in damages (2025 dollars), entire towns rebuilt from rubble. Now, a new generation faces the same nightmare.
What happens next? Recovery will take years. Power won’t come back for weeks. Hospitals will run on generators. Schools will be shelters longer than classrooms. And the emotional toll? That’s harder to measure. But one thing’s clear: when the wind finally stops, Jamaica won’t just be counting the damage. It’ll be counting on its people to rebuild.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this affect Jamaica’s economy?
Jamaica’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism, faces a devastating blow. With two major airports closed and over 5,000 daily travelers stranded, the island could lose more than $100 million in tourism revenue in just the first month. Hotels, restaurants, and tour operators—many small businesses—are likely to shutter permanently. Insurance claims are expected to exceed $2 billion, straining local and international insurers.
Why is the National Hurricane Center’s language so alarming?
The phrase "total structural failure" is reserved for the most extreme storms—those capable of destroying even well-built structures. It’s only been used five times since 1980. When the NHC deploys it, they’re signaling that standard building codes won’t save homes. This isn’t about loose shingles—it’s about buildings collapsing. It’s a last-resort warning meant to compel immediate action.
What made Hurricane Melissa strengthen so quickly?
Unusually warm sea surface temperatures—over 86°F in the eastern Caribbean—and low wind shear created a perfect storm for rapid intensification. Melissa’s development from tropical depression to Category 5 in just seven days is among the fastest on record for this region. Climate scientists note such rapid intensification events are becoming more common as ocean temperatures rise.
Is this storm connected to climate change?
While no single storm can be blamed solely on climate change, the conditions that fueled Melissa—warmer oceans, higher humidity, and more energy for storms—are consistent with long-term climate trends. Studies show Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have increased in frequency by about 25% over the past 40 years. Melissa fits that pattern: stronger, faster, and more destructive.
What should people in the U.S. or Cuba watch for next?
Cuba should prepare for heavy rain and flooding even if Melissa weakens to Category 3. For the U.S., the Gulf of Mexico is now a concern. If Melissa regains strength, Florida’s Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast could face a direct hit by early next week. The 40% probability isn’t high, but it’s enough for emergency managers to begin contingency planning.
How does this compare to Hurricane Gilbert?
Gilbert was a Category 5 that struck Jamaica in September 1988, killing 45 people and causing $1.9 billion in damage (2025 dollars). Melissa is tracking similarly but with higher wind speeds and a more compact eye, which may cause more concentrated destruction. Unlike Gilbert, which weakened over land, Melissa is expected to regain strength over water, making its long-term path far more unpredictable.